In fact, this enquiry might still be a bit premature.
The Arakha Army (AA) presently
controls ten of Arakan State’s seventeen townships, while seven more are still outside of its purview. Among the other townships, Kyaukphyu, Sittwe, Ann,
Maungdaw, Toungup, and Gwa are significant towns with political, military, and
economic. Furthermore, rather than seeking total separation, the AA has stated that
it will adopt a confederation model. There hasn’t been any declaration or plan to
advance towards total independence yet.
However, reports from the ground indicate that by the end of this year, AA is
anticipated to take control of Maungdaw and Gwa. Additionally, it is conceivable that
AA may soon take control of the military headquarters in Ann township. Additionally,
because of their strategic significance, China may become more involved in
Kyaukphyu and Sittwe. Public interest in the Arakha Army (AA) and its commander,
General Tun Myat Naing, has grown dramatically since the Spring Revolution of
2021, which was characterised by the escalation on October 27. As a result, the
question of whether Arakan National may emerge has arisen.
It is already common knowledge that establishing a nation is not an easy task. A
nation is not created by merely announcing its independence, flying its flag, or
performing its national anthem. There are different opinions of experts for the
fundamental requirements for establishing a nation.
Having a definite territory, a permanent population, a government independent that is
not under influence of other governments, and the capacity to interact with other
nations, resources including energy reserves, natural resources, economic capital,
technological resources, a trained labour force, intellectual resources, and trade
routes are also essential for both domestic and foreign trade are some of the
essential conditions for the formation of a nation. Public services including
healthcare, education, and transportation infrastructure are also crucial. Additionally
important are basic needs like food, shelter, and security. A nation’s identity is further
enhanced and full when it has a unique language, culture, and traditions.
Getting recognition from other nations is one of the biggest challenges. As
demonstrated by the situations of Taiwan and Palestine, some countries may decide
to recognise a new state, while others may not. But being a member of the United
Nations (UN) is even more important. But this is not always the only factor that
determines a country’s position. While being recognized by all countries and gaining
UN membership would undoubtedly be beneficial, a nation can still begin to function
effectively if it has fulfilled other critical criteria and is recognized by a few key
countries.
This is especially true if the nation establishes good relations with
neighbouring countries or a powerful state and such relationships can pave the way
for building political and economic connections with that country’s allies.
Declaring independence and establishing a new nation does not automatically make
it recognized as a country. However, such a declaration can still provide some
guarantees regarding sovereignty and autonomy. Specifically, having defined
territory, a permanent population, a distinct language and culture, and an
independent government operating without the presence or control of another
government’s authority or military within the territory are essential foundations of a
new nation. Even if the nation is not yet recognized by other countries or
organizations, it can still benefit from protections of using force against the territorial
integrity under UN Charter.
In the event of an actual attack, the responsibility for defence would ultimately fall on
the nation itself.
Will Arakan regain its independence? Since Arakan was formerly an autonomous
kingdom for a long time. To explore this possibility, we can analyse Arakan’s
historical background and its current circumstances step by step.
(1) Let’s examine the historical background
The ancient Dwarawaddy Kingdom in Arakan originated around 6000 BC, according
to Arakan histories. The Arakan Kingdom survived four significant dynastic periods
after this one. Four eras are Dynasty of Dhanyawadi (c. 3325 BC–327 AD), Dynasty
of Waithali (327–818 AD), Dynasty of Lemro (818–1430 AD), Dynasty of Mrauk-U
(1430–1784 AD).
Strong proof of Arakan’s historical presence as a sovereign state can be found in the
Ananda Sanda Stone Inscription from the Waithali period in 729 AD, the ancient
Dhanyawadi city walls, and the city walls, temples, and stupas of the Mrauk-U
Kingdom. It’s not to say that a nation must have an ancient history to justify its
establishment, but in the case of Arakan, its historical legacy supports its rightful
claim to sovereignty.
(2) Defined Territory or Distinct Land
It is evident from historical documents that Arakan’s borders were formerly far more
expansive than they are now. Putting that aside, Arakan still has a separate, well-
defined, and contiguous territory that is isolated from other areas.
(3) Permanent Population
According to the 2014 census, Arakan has a steady and established population of
about 3 million people, mostly made up of Arakan ethnic groups but also including
other populations. It is evident that this group is a long-term resident of the area
rather than a new arrival because they occupy a clearly defined and sizable territory.
(4) Recognition from Other Nations
It might be difficult to get international recognition if Arakan proclaims its
independence. It appears implausible among ASEAN nations. Due to its
geographical distance and lack of proximity to its border, China may also be
reluctant to deal with Arakan as an independent state. Furthermore, Arakan could
potentially leave China’s sphere of influence because it faces the Indian Ocean.
China may not want Myanmar to experience another “Taiwan” scenario, though,
given its advantageous location bordering the Indian Ocean.
Since AA currently controls the Paletwa region, it views Arakan as part of India
border. It would be against its policy to recognise an independent state arising from
Myanmar given its long-standing connection with the country’s military leadership.
Nonetheless, India frequently bases its foreign policy on what China is doing in the
area. India may change its position in response to any major action China takes on
Arakan. Recently, India has shown some increased engagement in Myanmar and
Arakan-related matters.
Bangladesh shares a direct border with Arakan and is heavily affected by the
ongoing refugee crisis. This situation could lead to potential negotiations or mutual
agreements between Bangladesh and Arakan, Islamic countries might also become
involved behind the scenes.
For geopolitical or financial reasons, South Korea and Japan have expressed some
interest in Arakan. But as of right now, nothing substantial has been done. For the
time being, Western nations are likewise probably going to be watching the situation
from a distance. Prospects for further international support and recognition may arise
if Arakan follows a clear and consistent route towards democracy and human rights.
Ultimately, it can be assessed that decisions regarding whether to recognize Arakan
as an independent state or continue engaging with it as part of Myanmar will largely
depend on the trajectory of Myanmar’s current political and military developments.
(5) Government Structure
There will always be a governing authority, whether a nation is officially recognised.
The “Arakan People’s Government,” as the Arakan Army (AA) has long called itself,
is a type of revolutionary government. If a country were to be founded, it would be
more credible internationally if it had an inclusive administration that represented
both the underground and visible forces, as opposed to merely a revolutionary
government or one controlled by the revolutionary military. Over time, democratic
countries would probably support efforts to build a government based on democratic
values.
(6) Natural Resources
The wealth of Arakan’s natural resources is well known. Its offshore fields are
already producing natural gas, and more reserves have been found for potential
future exploration. Additionally, the area may yield oil discoveries. In addition to fossil
fuels, Arakan is abundant in bamboo, fish, and prawns, as well as lumber. These
resources might greatly boost Arakan’s economy for decades if they are used and
managed methodically and responsibly, giving the region a solid basis for growth
and self-sufficiency.
(7) Economic Foundations
Arakan has solid economic foundations. The region’s main sources of income are
agriculture, livestock production, fishery, forestry, bamboo, and border trade, in
addition to its oil and natural gas potential. It is a prospective tourist destination
because of its abundance of historic pagodas, monuments, beaches, forests, and
waterfalls. In addition to satisfying local need, the excess production of staple
commodities like rice boosts the country’s economy.
These industries are appealing to investors because they would be necessary for the
establishment of a new country, including communication networks, everyday
essentials, and medical supplies. Arakan has the potential to draw in global
enterprises and manufacturing thanks to its strong labour pool. All things considered,
Arakan has the fundamental economic components required to facilitate the founding
and growth of a new country.
(8) Routes of Trade
Exporting commodities and earning foreign exchange is essential for any country.
Natural gas from Arakan is currently a valuable export commodity. Products from
agriculture, livestock, forestry, and fisheries can also be exported. Markets for these
products are easily accessible in nearby populous nations like Bangladesh and India.
Furthermore, exports to far-off overseas markets are made possible by marine trade
made possible by Arakan’s coastal access and land trade channels because Arakan
is not landlocked nation.
(9) Language, Literature, Culture, and Traditions
Arakan has a rich history of its own language and literature, dating back to the
Dhanyawadi era. By the Waithali period (327–818 AD), the Arakan people were
already systematically writing literature, as evidenced by the Ananda Sanda Stone
Inscription from AD 729. This makes the Arakan one of the earliest literate groups in
present-day Myanmar. Alongside their literary heritage, Arakan also boasts a distinct
and well-preserved culture, including craftsmanship, traditional arts, and customs,
which remain prominent and influential in Arakan society today.
The diverse ethnic groups living in Arakan, such as the Arakan, Chin, Thet, Khami,
Myo, Kaman, and Rohingya communities, commonly use the Arakan language.
While regional dialects exhibit slight variations in tone and pronunciation, the
language remains unified as a single linguistic entity.
(10) Defence
Over 30,000 troops are thought to be part of the Arakha Army (AA), which is
presently engaged in combat to retake Arakan from the military junta. However,
reports from the ground indicate that this figure may be significantly higher. The AA
benefits from voluntary enlistment motivated by patriotism and a strong sense of
responsibility among the populace, as opposed to conscription-based recruitment.
This implies that it may easily increase its forces additional if necessary.
The ability of the AA to effectively plan, coordinate, and lead military operations has
been shown. Arakan’s military might be substantially upgraded and fortified if it gains
independence and has steady sources of income. In the past, Arakan has
established strong and sophisticated armies in the area.
(11) The People
There is a sizable pool of highly qualified and educated professionals in Arakan that
can support the development and restoration of the area. Arakan people were
historically well-represented among Indian Civil Service (ICS) officers during British
rule. Even today, a significant number of Arakan individuals hold positions as
departmental staff and high-ranking officials. As evidence of the existence of an
informed and competent intellectual community prepared to spearhead nation-
building initiatives.
There are plenty of workers in Arakan. It is estimated that more than a million young
Arakan people are currently employed overseas. There is a good chance that they
will return if employment prospects are established in Arakan.
(12) About AA Leaders
The majority of people in Arakan today appreciate, trust, and accept the leaders of
the AA. There are also others in Myanmar who believe that Arakan has produced
capable leaders of whom the country can be proud on a national level.
In actuality, the AA commanders’ observable accomplishments have served as
evidence of their patient, decisiveness, organisational and unifying skills, foresight,
prompt action, opportunity-seizing ability, alliance-building, and military expertise.
One could argue that they have not yet accomplished much in the areas of
administration and reconstruction. However, it may be determined that, once a
methodically organised government is put in place, they will be able to function
exceptionally well in a specific amount of time based on the foundation they have
laid during the previous years. It is also reasonable to assume that they will select an
administrative structure that is compatible with and appropriate for the Arakan
people.
(13) Remaining Tasks
At the moment, the AA has to keep to take control the other towns. Kyaukphyu and
Sittwe are probably going to be the next strategic targets once Maungdaw, Gwa, and
Ann have been consolidated. It is reasonable to wonder if talks could result in the
military junta leaving Kyaukphyu given the existence of Chinese projects there.
Currently, the military junta’s continuous airstrikes and bombings suggest that they
are not inclined towards a negotiated withdrawal from Arakan. However, it is also
possible that these actions are intended to create pressure and pave the way for
negotiations.
The AA’s statements and interviews suggest that they are unlikely to leave any
traces of the military junta administration or forces in Arakan, whether through
negotiation or non-negotiation method. Nevertheless, as they say, “like clouded
mountains and matters of king affairs,” mean that a firm judgement on this issue is
impossible.
We can conclude that the AA is unlikely to suddenly and recklessly give up on the
mission of overthrowing the military rule in Arakan without significant planning and
thorough consideration. The Western bloc’s critical position on the Bengali Rohingya
issue and the existence of Chinese projects in Arakan, however, raise the risk that,
in some cases, the Arakan conflict could spread to central Myanmar.
Throughout its history, Arakan has maintained its independence, and it still has the
qualities needed to regain its status as a nation. For more than 240 years, the
aspiration of the Arakan people has been to reestablish an independent state. The
Arakan people have been prepared to give up everything—lives, homes, and
belongings—without hesitation or protest to achieve this aim.
On the other hand, AA’s leaders are strategic and visionary. As said earlier, they
take decisive action after meticulous planning and patience. Their words, comments,
and deeds demonstrate their capacity to consider what is best for Arakan, including
whether joining a federal union or being an independent country will benefit them
more internationally. Additionally, it appears that the AA recognises and embraces
their historic role in helping to overthrow military rule.
Therefore, the following analysis might be used to examine the question of an
Arakan State:
(1) Arakan will bide their time till a federal or confederal union can be established.
Arkan will set up a proper administration and administrative structure to run
the area during this waiting period.
(2) If any ethnic group or faction tries to take political control when it comes time
to formally form a union—just as the Burman majority has historically
determined the political structure, for example, by establishing the NUG
(National Unity Government) as the government ruling the entire country, or
by electing the president and the federal government based on population, or
by elevating parliamentary representatives based on population—then Arakan
will probably become an independent country.
Therefore, it is improbable that the AA would merely seize control of the entire
province and declare Arakan as an independent nation. Arakan might, however,
become an independent country if that is what is wanted, contingent on the
conditions, attitudes, choices, and reactions of other ethnic groups, especially the
Burmans.
The author of this political analysis is Nay Htet Moe Zaw.
